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Looking Ahead to Q1 of 2009
We have all heard the old saying, “It is always dark before sunrise.” But when can we expect things to light up? There is a lot of confusion and distrust with the stock market in the tank, and many businesses have already filed or are preparing to file for bankruptcy, which while looking into the dark, we see less information. Expected for the first quarter of 2009.
Retailers will still pick through the rubble of a catastrophic holiday season. Some experts are predicting that we will see the highest number of retail store bankruptcies in 35 years, from small stores to entire supermarkets and from electronics to clothing. Many predict that the retail industry of the future will be facilitated with branded stores and thinner profits.
Many other banks will fail because they can not take on a lot of record of business loan losses and credit card failures. This will be a widespread system across the banking industry and local banks will collapse. This is despite the banks being collecting cash so they will have a buffer against losing their own potential. Citigroup has already received $ 25 billion in cash from the Fed and expect another $ 20 billion, but I do not believe it will be enough to get them out of the woods. So beware of Citigroup and at least another big bank that needs to be further nationalized.
It is clear that the automotive industry will not have stellar earnings information to report. Despite $ 6 billion in government assistance, it remains to be seen whether GM and Chrysler will be able to land. Despite the $ 5 billion stake in GMAC financing arm, I am not holding my breath about easing the credit crunch any time soon.
With lower consumption and demand, I do not expect oil and other commodities to recover in the first quarter. Crude oil prices, which saw widespread fluctuations in 2008, are likely to remain volatile until 2009. According to oil traders, economists and the International Energy Agency expect oil prices to hover between $ 40 and $ 65 a barrel. Prices peaked at $ 147.27 in July 2008, but the global credit crunch and recession fell below $ 50. Price changes may continue, but are expected to decline sharply in 2009. We can expect poor earnings reports for most corporations in Q4, 2008, and I expect further capital spending cuts across other industries. In fact, look for bankruptcy to separate many industries other than construction, finance and retail. Reports began to emerge last week that the world’s third-largest chemical company, LyondellBasell Industries, is considering filing for bankruptcy protection. Although corporate earnings are disappointing, I think we may see the market gain momentum from the Obama inauguration on January 20, but it will be short-lived. Consider the chaos he has inherited: Unemployment has risen, housing prices have fallen and GDP is expected to fall 6% in Q4, although real numbers will still arrive as projected for Q1 2009. Industrial production is likely to continue to decline, and while the Obama administration stands for hope and change, it may take until the end of Q2 or Q3 before consumer confidence shows any signs of improvement.
The economic crisis will continue not only in the United States, but will spread to other large and developing countries, causing further stalemate to the global economy. Expect more trade gaps, such as the current one between China and the United States, and a Mexican ban on US beef. This will result in short-term protectionism rather than open trade, a condition that could exist until the economy recovers around 2010.
Despite the gloom and doom and the long recession forecast, the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New York, conducted a survey and found some surprising results that most Americans. Optimistic about what was in store in 2009. Those with the highest expectations for a bright future are under the age of 45 and may not have lost a large portion of their retirement savings. Sixty-four percent of those under the age of 45 were optimistic, compared to 52 percent for those aged 45 and over.
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